Winter in April chilled the market, but not for long

The analytical service of Sales magazine “Metal Supply & Sales” continues its publication of the MCC-TP Index (Market Temperature Index). The index value is determined through weekly expert surveys.

The sharp cold snap and snowfalls in the first week of April had a noticeable impact on the Russian steel market. Several experts noted a decline in sales and a narrowing of consumer demand compared to late March. Despite this downturn, rebar remained in positive territory.

The deterioration in market conditions, much like the weather, is temporary. Expectations for the current week (April 14–18) are far more favorable. Many experts predict a recovery in sales and increased demand for rebar and medium-sized profile pipes. Hot-rolled steel, however, continues to lag in this regard.

The "MSS-TP. Results" index for the past workweek (April 7–11) fell by 1.60 percentage points (p.p.), marking the steepest decline since late November 2023. However, at 50.21 points, it remained above the 50-point threshold, which distinguishes observed growth from contraction.

The return of spring weather has improved expectations. The "MCC-TP. Expectations" index for the current workweek (April 14–18) rose by 1.37 p.p. to 53.72 points, its highest level since May 2024. Additionally, the gap between the expectations index and the results index reached a 12-month high of 3.51 points.

The expert survey asks participants to evaluate, on a 10-point scale, the results of the past week and expectations for the upcoming week for the following products: medium-sized A500C reinforcing bars (12–16 mm), hot-rolled St3 steel sheet (4–10 mm thickness), medium-sized profile pipes (60x40 – 80x80)

Parameters assessed include:
- Sales (in monetary terms)
- Demand (consumer demand, measured in physical terms – by tonnage, number of inquiries)
- Warehouse inventories
- Purchases (by tonnage – purchases of rolled steel from producers by distributors)
- Costs (energy, labor, taxes, raw materials, and other factors affecting production costs)
- Prices