Novolipetsk Steel trading update for Q4 2007 and FY 2007
We believe that NLMK’s consolidated sales revenue will increase in 2007 compared to 2006. NLMK’s EBITDA in 2007 is expected to grow approximately 25-30% compared to the previous year.
We note the growth of steel prices at the beginning of 2008 caused by the increase in basic raw materials prices. We expect steel price to rise during the first half of the year followed by mid-year flattening.
Production*
The table below shows the production volume of NLMK’s principal steel products from its main site in Lipetsk, Russia:
** including supply to subsidiaries
The table below shows the principal product tonnage produced at NLMK’s Danish subsidiary, DanSteel A/S:
The table below shows the principal product tonnage produced at NLMK’s subsidiary, VIZStal:
The table below shows the production volume of principal product tonnage produced at NLMK’s subsidiary, Stoilensky GOK:
The table below shows the principal product tonnage produced at NLMK’s subsidiary, Altaikoks:
* All information on Q4 2007 and FY 2007 production volumes is preliminary and may be subject to change;
Realized prices*
Realized prices are calculated by dividing sales revenue by sales volume.
Such calculations do not differentiate between particular product types and grades within a product sub-category. Realized prices are not indicative of actual contract prices and can only serve as an approximation. All information on Q4 2007 prices is preliminary and may be subject to change.
The table below shows the average price realized for each of NLMK’s main steel products:
The table below shows the DanSteel A/S average heavy plate prices:
The table below shows average VIZ-Stal product prices:
The table below shows average Stoilensky GOK product prices:
The table below shows the Altai-koks average coke prices:
* Excluding freight charge
The commissioning of the third hot dip galvanizing line resulted in a 10.7% increase of HDG steel production in 2007 compared to 2006. The increase in dynamo steel output (+9.8%) in 2007 compared to 2006 is attributable to growing number of orders for this product. The minor decrease of grain-oriented (transformer) steel output on a y-o-y basis was caused by further development of the electrical steel product portfolio. The substantial growth of grain-oriented steel production in Q4 2007 compared to the previous quarter is attributable to modernization of electrical steel mills in Q3 2007 focused on improving product quality.
In 2007, DanSteel A/S increased the production of hot-rolled thick plates on a y-o-y basis by switching to a four-shift work schedule. The growth of hot-rolled thick plate production in Q4 2007 compared to the previous quarter resulted from the annual maintenance schedule during July – August 2007. The optimization of the technological process focused on reducing metal loss resulted in grain-oriented steel production growth at VIZ-Stal (+4.9%) in 2007 compared to 2006. As for the mining segment, Stoilensky GOK demonstrated an increase in production of iron ore concentrate in 2007 due to the commissioning of the first stage of the fourth section of the beneficiating plant in 2006. The growth of sinter ore production is attributable to favorable mining and geological conditions of the deposit. The increase of coke production (+28.1%) on a y-o-y basis results from putting into operation a new coke battery at the end of 2006 and growing demand in core markets. The seasonal year end demand weakness has resulted in price decreases for certain flat steel products supplied by NLMK. However, the seasonal factor did not significantly impact on overall price level for NLMK’s products. Moreover, prices for certain products including pig iron, slabs and electrical steel surged due to growing demand on the domestic and global market and further US dollar weakening. The DanSteel and VIZ-Stal product prices demonstrated growth during the reporting period. Despite the fact that prices for Stoilensky GOK products were fixed during Q3-Q4 2007, the lowering USD/RUR exchange rate resulted in growing average prices for iron ore concentrate and sinter ore at Stoilensky GOK in Q4 2007 compared to previous quarter. The supply shortage on the coking coal market resulted in growing coking coal concentrate prices and, as a consequence, Altai-koks coke prices.
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